Table of Contents
Economy + Internet Trends, October 20, 2009
- Economy + Internet Trends Outline 22
- Financial Market + Economy Update / Dashboard 33
- Stock Market = Often a Leading Indicator of Economic Growth Russia +181% vs. 36-Month Low / India +109% / China +72% / USA (S&P500) +59% 44
- Credit Spreads Narrowing = Easier to Borrow Money But Borrowing Cost Still High vs. ‘Normal’ 55
- Stock Market Volatility Implies Relatively Stable OutlookVolatility Index (VIX) Has Returned Near ‘Normal’ 66
- S&P500 Positive Earnings Estimate Revisions RisingAfter Largest Cuts in 20 Years (in C2008 / CQ1:09) 77
- Technology Sector Shining Relative to Others19% of S&P500 Market Capitalization vs. 15% in 2008 88
- Intel as Proxy For Technology SpendingCQ3:09 Revenue (+17% Q/Q) = Highest CQ3 Sequential Growth in 30+ Years 99
- Global Technology RevenueEstimates Imply Recovery…So Far, a 2001 Redux 1010
- Technology IPO Market2x Deal Volume…4x Dollar Volume YTD vs. 2008 1111
- Financial Market + Economy Update / Dashboard 1212
- Domestic GDP + ConsumptionTrends Becoming Less Bad 1313
- Global GDPGrowth Forecasts Have Turned Positive…Led by China / India 1414
- Advertising Spending Should Grow in 2010E Based on Regression Analysis 1515
- Retail Sales + eCommerceGrowth Troughed in CQ1:09 1616
- Consumer Confidence Rising But Still Well Below ‘Normal’ 1717
- Manufacturing Returning to ‘Normal’ 1818
- Risk Low Manufacturing Capacity Utilization Implies Weak Demand 1919
- Risk New Home Sales Off Historic Lows But Way Below ‘Normal’ 2020
- Risk Consumer Credit Card Defaults Rising 2121
- Risk Residential Mortgage Defaults at All-Time Highs & Rising 2222
- Risk Commercial Mortgage Defaults Rising 2323
- RiskUnemployment High & Rising – USA at 10% in 9/09 vs. 6% Y/Y 2424
- RiskUnemployment Peak = Typically Key for Sustainable Economic Turn 2525
- RiskDebt Levels at Historic Levels & Rising, USA Government Leading Charge 2626
- Risk USA Income Statement = Expenses Exceed Revenue Entitlement Expenses (Social Security + Medicare…) Going Lots Higher 2727
- Web 2.0 Summits6 Years of Internet Trends for John & Tim 2828
- 8 Key Mobile Internet Themes 2929
- Key Theme # 1Mobile Internet Usage Is and Will Be Bigger than Most Think 3030
- Mobile InternetNext Major Computing Cycle 3131
- New Computing Cycles Supported by 10x More Devices Opportunities for Semiconductor / Hardware / Software / Services 3232
- Mobile Internet Outpaces Desktop Internet Adoption iPhone + iTouch Users = 8x AOL Users 8 Quarters After Launch 3333
- Real-Time Wireless Remote Controls EverywhereNumber / Types of Cloud-Based Mobile Connected Devices Growing Rapidly 3434
- Global 3G Subscribers – Wireless Broadband2010E Inflection Point, Penetration >20% 3535
- Location-Based ServicesKey to Mobile Internet ‘Secret Sauce’ 3636
- Key Theme # 2Apple Mobile Share Should Surprise on Upside Near Term 3737
- Momentum Favors Apple iPhone + iTouch EcosystemFastest Hardware User Growth in Consumer Tech History 3838
- Mobile Internet Usage Likely a Leading Indicator of Smartphone ShipmentsiPhone / Android Usage Share Much Higher than Shipment Share 3939
- Key Theme #3 Next Generation Platforms (Social Networking + Mobile) are Driving Unprecedented Change in Communications + Commerce 4040
- Facebook Largest Share Gainer of Online Usage Over Past 3 Years 4141
- Powerful New Publishing / Distribution Platforms 4242
- New Communications Platforms Facebook = Unified Communication + Multimedia Repository in Your Pocket 4343
- Mobile Social Networking in Japan~3x Greater (and Rising) than Desktop Social Networking per Mixi 4444
- Apple Unshackled Mobile Developers from Carrier Walled GardensLeveraged 100MM+ iTunes Users Trained to Purchase Digital Goods Apple’s Way 4545
- ‘Walled Gardens’ Collapsed Nearly Overnight UK Mobile Users Fleeing From Carrier Portal Sites 4646
- Facebook + Apple iPhone / iTouchDriving Independent / Overlapping Innovation in Social Networking + Mobile Platforms 4747
- Key Theme # 4Mobile in Japan + Desktop Internet Provide Roadmaps for Mobile Growth + Monetization 4848
- Japan’s Mobile Internet Revenue MixShows Growth Potential for eCommerce, Paid Services + Advertising 4949
- Mobile Commerce Ramping Rapidly in Japan18% of Rakuten’s CQ1 eCommerce Revenue Derived from Mobile 5050
- While Vendors / Advertisers Tend to ‘Pay’on Desktop Internet (via Advertising + eCommerce)… 5151
- …Users Tend to ‘Pay’on Mobile Internet (via Premium Services) 5252
- Key Theme # 5 3G Adoption / Trends Vary by Geography 5353
- 3G Penetration Inflection Points Vary by RegionW. Europe + N. America = 2007–2008, ROW = 2010-2012E 5454
- Key Theme # 6 Carriers in USA / W. Europe Face Surging Network Demand But Uncertain Economics. 5555
- Heavy Mobile Data UsersLikely to Triple to 1B+ by 2013E 5656
- AT&T50x Mobile Data Traffic Increase in Past 3 Years 5757
- Wi-Fi = Material Portion of USA iPhone Traffic, per AdMobWi-Fi Providing Some Relief to Challenged 3G Networks 5858
- Key Theme # 7 Regulators Can Help Advance / Slow Mobile Internet Evolution 5959
- Key Theme # 8Mobile-Related Share Shifts Will Create / Destroy Material Shareholder Wealth 6060
- Mobile Internet Likely to Follow Timing & Development Patterns of Desktop Internet Market 6161
- Technology Cycles - Wealth Creation / Destruction New Companies Often Win Big in New Cycles 6262
- Appendix USA Income Statement, F2000 – F2009E 6363
- Disclosure Section 6464